Growth Lies Here

When I started tracking the Indian Mobile VAS space I was looking at the industry growth numbers. While the growth figures were startling I had tough time in reconciling the figures which varied from report to report.

Current Indian VAS Market Size (2005) INR 500 - 600 Crore ~ 6 billion USD
- According to a report, the market size by 2010 is expected to be INR 3000 - 4000 Crore ~48 billion USD. An annual growth rate of 180%!!!
- Another report quotes a figure of 40 billion USD by 2010.
- Gartner estimates the market to be 24 billion USD by 2009.

Are these growth rates realistic when the global VAS market itself is valued at 48 billion USD by 2007? The true numbers lie somewhere in between.